Earlier today, I came across this interesting piece of “research” identifying Jos. A. Bank as a compelling long opportunity. For those out of the loop, JOSB is in the process of being acquired by Mens Wearhouse for $65/share. As you can see, since MW made its most recent offer (raising the price to $65, that is), JOSB hasn’t exactly been a great stock to trade, to put it gently. To wit:
+3% and change since JOSB filed the press release announcing the higher takeout price, raised from $63.50 on 3/11 of this year, which was just the most recent bump in the long road that has been the MW-JOSB journey (which, if you’ll recall, started with JOSB offering to buy MW back in September of last year, a brilliant strategy in my humble opinion). The odds of the bid being raised from $65 at this point are, in my fairly well informed opinion, lower than the odds that MW’s board will change its mind after conducting due diligence (itself unlikely, but non-zero). Put simply, any trader/investor can do 5 minutes of work, 15 tops, to realize there’s little upside, and a lot of opportunity cost, not opportunity, getting long JOSB at this point.
TheStreet’s QuantRatings system, available for the bargain price of “less than $1 per week!” touts, among other things, “In-depth analysis of the stock’s most important fundamental and technical factors…”
One would hope that, among the many factors this or any system “analyzes” the existence of a tender offer (easily found in SEC filings, press releases, etc by man or machine) would be one of them. Alas…
With novice and professional traders/”investors” alike increasingly relying on any “new information” in the market to inform their decisions (or, too often, confirm their preexisting views), such garbage systematic “research” is as much, if not more a source of risk than a source of opportunity.
Making money investing/trading is not easy; assuming for even a moment otherwise is a surefire way to shoot oneself in the foot.